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U.S. Recession Imminent – World Trade Slumps By Most Since Financial Crisis

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This article was originally published at Zero Hedge

As goes the world, so goes America (according to 30 years of historical data), and so when world trade volumes drop over 2% (the biggest drop since 2009) in the last six months to the weakest since June 2014, the “US recession imminent” canary in the coalmine is drawing her last breath

 

U.S. Recession Imminent - World Trade Slumps By Most Since Financial Crisis

As Wolf Street’s Wolf Richter adds, this isn’t stagnation or sluggish growth. This is the steepest and longest decline in world trade since the Financial Crisis. Unless a miracle happened in June, and miracles are becoming exceedingly scarce in this sector, world trade will have experienced its first back-to-back quarterly contraction since 2009.

Both of the measures above track import and export volumes. As volumes have been skidding, new shipping capacity has been bursting on the scene in what has become a brutal fight for market share [read… Container Carriers Wage Price War to Form Global Shipping Oligopoly].

Hence pricing per unit, in US dollars, has plunged 14% since May 2014, and nearly 20% since the peak in March 2011. For the months of March, April, and May, the unit price index has hit levels not seen since mid-2009.

World-Trade-Monitor-Unit-Price-2012-2015_05

World trade isn’t down for just one month, or just one region. It wasn’t bad weather or an election somewhere or whatever. The swoon has now lasted five months. In addition, the CPB decorated its report with sharp downward revisions of the prior months. And it isn’t limited to just one region. The report explains:

The decline was widespread, import and export volumes decreasing in most regions and countries, both advanced and emerging. Import and export growth turned heavily negative in Japan. Among emerging economies, Central and Eastern Europe was one of the worst performers.

Given these trends, the crummy performance of our heavily internationalized revenue-challenged corporate heroes is starting to make sense: it’s tough out there.

But not just in the rest of the world. At first we thought it might have been a blip, a short-term thing. Read… Americans’ Economic Confidence Gets Whacked

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Brandon Smith

Oath Keepers Merchandise

One comment

  1. Dad shared the tales of his youth in rural Mid-west USA during the Great Depression. The much smaller population and far-less intrusive local and state governments allowed folks to scrape by. Some families dug caves in the river bluffs and lived there via hunting, fishing and trapping. Try that in the “new improved” USA.

    If economic turmoil hits the situations will be so varied that the great advice for that fellow over there would be worthless to that family unit over yonder ‘cross the holler. I am lucky by having no dependents and having a pick-up truck with a camper shell I can live within. However, too often being homeless within the USA is treated as if that, in itself, is a crime and the cops will roust the law-abiding, honest, decent gent for merely confronting bad luck and bad times and forced to live outside the norm that has been set by a small minority of folks who possess the majority of the national wealth.

    Hopefully those very bad times do not appear. However, best to be prepared beforehand. There are many Web sites offering advice; good, bad and in-between. Use your common sense to weed out the BS and and consider what appears to be sound advice and place that in your mental briefcase for later use.

    Good luck to all.

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